We know that the ‘Switch 2’ is real. We know an announcement is coming this fiscal year. We know “Switch successor” is the most accurate description of it. All of the other big details — what form it will take, how big it will be, whether it will finally give us that flipping Wind Waker port — are all up to speculation and analysis for the time being.

Take, perhaps, one of the biggest questions of them all: How much will ‘Switch 2’ cost? In the absence of an official announcement, we still have no idea, but that hasn’t stopped certain analysts from throwing out predictions and it won’t stop us from looking to the past to try and determine the future.

Earlier this year, it was Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of game industry consultancy firm Kantan Games, who gave the nice, round $400 prediction in a chat with GamesIndustry.biz. But that number appears to be on the rise. Just this week, analyst Hideki Yasuda of Toyo Securities published a report suggesting that the next console could retail at $499 (around £385) or less, putting the ‘Switch 2’ in a substantially higher price bracket than its predecessor (thanks, T3).

As a reminder, the OG Switch launched in 2017 for $299.99 / £279.99. The handheld-only Lite model came in a little cheaper in 2019 at $199.99 / £199.99, while the beefier OLED would pump things up to $349.99 / £309.99 at launch in 2021.

No matter which way you look at it, the $400-$499 prediction range for its successor is certainly a step up, but this makes sense, no? In the eight years since the Switch launched, the industry has thrown out the PS5 at $499 / £449 (with a cheaper Digital edition also available) and the Xbox Series X|S at $499 / £449 and $299 / £249 respectively.

This isn’t to say that the ‘Switch 2’ will be comparable to either of these in terms of power — the Nvidia T239 chip rumoured to be used in the console would put it closer to the previous generation’s PS4 / Xbox One — but it is a sure sign that the console market has made a pretty big jump since we all splashed the cash on the OG Switch back in 2017.

All that said, Nintendo has, historically, opted for a cheaper price point than its competitors. The GameCube launched at $199 / £129 back in 2001, making it markedly cheaper than the PS2 and, later, the Xbox at $299 / £299 each. The Wii’s $249.99 / £179.99 price point was a huge step down from the PS3’s $499.99 / £399.99 and the Xbox 360’s $299.99 / £209.99 and it will come as no surprise that things were the same for the Wii U vs. the PS4 and Xbox One.

Of course, Nintendo’s tech has effectively been one generation behind Sony and Microsoft since the Wii era, making a more competitive price point that bit easier. But our point is, when it comes to pricing, you can’t bank on Nintendo to follow the crowd.

Looking at the market (and depending on specs, of course) we’d say that the $499 estimate seems a little too high for the ‘Switch 2’. If we had to guess, around $400 feels better. This would still make it the most expensive Nintendo console to date (no surprises there), but if the rumours are to be believed that the successor was displayed running the Matrix Awakens Unreal Engine 5 demo at a behind-closed-doors Gamescom 2023 presentation, then the console will likely have a substantial performance boost to warrant the price hike.

There’s every chance that the improved performance could push the price tags closer to the $499 range — and rumours of electromagnetic Joy-Con would certainly nail the coolness value — but we haven’t forgotten the whispers that the next model might launch with an LCD (rather than an OLED) screen. Around $400 seems to fit nicely in the higher-middle ground: expensive enough that you know there are improvements, but reasonable enough that you might consider splashing out again for a bigger, fancier model three years down the line.

Any higher than this and the Big N would risk losing the more affordable approachability that has benefitted its sales in the past, but who knows? Perhaps the successor will pack enough of a punch to make $499 seem reasonable. Heck, add StreetPass to that bad boy and we’d gladly fork out the big bucks.

But what do you think? Can you see the ‘Switch 2’ being substantially more expensive than the OLED and hitting the $499 mark or do you think a marginal price increase is more likely at launch? Share your gut reaction in the following polls and then take to the comments to give us your estimate.