Spice and Wolf – Episode 17 Review

「行商人の浅知恵と町商人の看板」 (Gyoushounin no Asadjie to Machi Shounin no Kanban)
“Traveling Merchant’s Shallow Thinking and Town Merchant’s Signboard”

Although I’ve said it before this arc always brings a smile to my face. From the whiplash Kraft (and Holo) go through to the more economic side of things there’s quite a bit under the hood which makes for both interesting and predictive material. After all, you know that this isn’t the end of the road for Kraft and Holo, but how exactly will Kraft overcome the odds? That’s the right question to be asking.

Out of most things economic in Spice and Wolf the pyrite speculation I think is one of the best because it hearkens to a key part of our collective psyche in always looking for an edge. We as a species are driven towards a profit because a profit entails winning, and winning entails better survival odds. In that sense gambling on a good with no real, long-lasting value is the height of that hubris because what goes up must always come down. One need look no further than Holland’s great Tulip Bubble or, more recently, the GameStop short squeeze to get an idea of the mechanics at work, and this episode also teased in plentifully in having the average resident put time and money into pyrite whose only value to them is selling for more later on. Everyone is hoping to get out ahead, but someone will always be left to hold the bag and those who attempt timing the market are those predestined to get screwed over by it – especially the moment it’s the likes of your own grandmother considering making a move.

Part of inevitably comes into play with Kraft’s strategy because he too implicitly understands the gradually shifting sands. Since profit is key and most trading is based on gut instinct (no matter what the margin trader tells you), a few choice words and the right sort of action can trigger a stampede turning gold into lead. Thus Kraft’s idea to spread a rumour or two and let human emotion take care of the rest. Amati too is dependent on this flow, which is why Kraft is also betting via the futures-based sale of pyrite on credit. Much like Kraft is dependent on a crash Amati needs a spike so his accumulation of the gilded stuff covers the cost of the original bet. Market crashes? Amati loses quite a bit of equity trapped in his pyrite investments and no longer will be able to claim Holo for himself. Mind you Kraft can also lose should the market stay solvent longer than the bet’s duration (and never bet on when a market will stop being irrational), but hey, that’s half the suspense here! Whether the young upstart or grizzled road veteran prevail all comes down to who can metaphorically work a crowd.

And that of course doesn’t account for Holo and her continued role in all the festivities. I doubt few imagined her turning away Kraft completely following last week, and indeed that was the case, albeit with her usual sly, devious self. That marriage certificate after all is not an emphatic departure but rather a challenge: does Kraft truly care about Holo? Does he want to stay with her? Then the guy will do everything in his power to ensure that certificate is null and void. Proving that is the second letter detailing Amati’s assets, since naturally Holo isn’t one for spite when it comes to helping out the person she actually wants to be with. While a somewhat cruel and unusual setup, Kraft does bear a bit of the blame because if he simply talked to the girl and was open in his own feelings much of the misunderstandings would’ve been avoided. Holo too understands it and her own fault given her actions here, however much like every other aspect of their relationship it’s a blemish which needs time and a proper heart to heart before it’s fully rectified.

Considering the grand showdown approaching with Amati though, I don’t think we’ll have to wait that long in finding out how these two companions make it through their latest troubles.

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